While the first part of my predictions for the European World Cup referee list solely concentrated on those four nations that were each represented by two short-listed match officials, this text puts stress on the remaining eleven referee trios coming from different nations. Among them, there are surely some safe bets, but also plenty of shaky candidates who have to keep all their fingers crossed to be selected by Busacca and his colleagues. Therefore, this is the most difficult and most arduous analysis of all.
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| Björn Kuipers will very likely return to Rio de Janeiro |
REFEREE with ASSISTANT REFEREES | MA | Date of Birth | FIFA 10-13 | Vote | |
UEFA PART 2 | |||||
Referee | Cüneyt ÇAKIR | TUR | 23.11.1976 | 13 | 89% |
Assistant 1 | Bahattin DURAN | TUR | 01.01.1975 | 13 | |
Assistant 2 | Tarik ONĞUN | TUR | 01.01.1973 | 13 | |
Referee | Jonas ERIKSSON | SWE | 28.03.1974 | 8 | 79% |
Assistant 1 | Mathias KLASENIUS | SWE | 25.04.1975 | 8 | |
Assistant 2 | Daniel WÄRNMARK | SWE | 30.12.1974 | 8 | |
Referee | Viktor KASSAI | HUN | 10.09.1975 | 10 | 91% |
Assistant 1 | Gábor ERÖS | HUN | 05.09.1971 | 10 | |
Assistant 2 | György RING | HUN | 18.03.1981 | 4 | |
Referee | Pavel KRÁLOVEC | CZE | 16.08.1977 | 12 | 18% |
Assistant 1 | Martin WILCZEK | CZE | 23.05.1970 | 12 | |
Assistant 2 | Roman SLYŠKO | SVK | 04.08.1973 | 4 | |
Referee | Björn KUIPERS | NED | 28.03.1973 | 8 | 94% |
Assistant 1 | Sander VAN ROEKEL | NED | 28.03.1974 | 8 | |
Assistant 2 | Erwin ZEINSTRA | NED | 31.01.1977 | 12 | |
Referee | Stéphane LANNOY | FRA | 18.09.1969 | 7 | 40% |
Assistant 1 | Frédéric CANO | FRA | 23.07.1973 | 8 | |
Assistant 2 | Michaël ANNONIER | FRA | 18.06.1972 | 7 | |
Referee | Milorad MAŽIĆ | SRB | 23.03.1973 | 7 | 43% |
Assistant 1 | Milovan RISTIĆ | SRB | 01.05.1974 | 7 | |
Assistant 2 | Dalibor DJURDJEVIĆ | SRB | 25.03.1973 | 6 | |
Referee | Svein Oddvar MOEN | NOR | 22.01.1979 | 12 | 36% |
Assistant 1 | Kim Thomas HAGLUND | NOR | 27.05.1977 | 14 | |
Assistant 2 | Frank ANDÅS | NOR | 26.09.1975 | 9 | |
Referee | Pedro PROENÇA | POR | 03.11.1970 | 7 | 87% |
Assistant 1 | Bertino MIRANDA | POR | 18.05.1972 | 11 | |
Assistant 2 | Tiago TRIGO | POR | 10.12.1973 | 7 | |
Referee | Damir SKOMINA | SVN | 05.08.1976 | 7 | 75% |
Assistant 1 | Matej ŽUNIČ | SVN | 11.05.1983 | 7 | |
Assistant 2 | Bojan UL | SVN | 20.08.1970 | 7 | |
Referee | Craig THOMSON | SCO | 20.06.1972 | 5 | 31% |
Assistant 1 | Derek ROSE | SCO | 21.07.1974 | 5 | |
Assistant 2 | Alan MULVANNY | SCO | 13.03.1980 | 4 | |
As written above, we have to examine eleven referee trios for the last seven remaining places on the World Cup list. Six of them will function as main trios meaning that they will actively take charge of matches in Brazil and one of them will be the standby team that accompany their colleagues into several matches as fourth official and reserve assistant referee (also called fifth official in FIFA circles). As four referees have to be ruled out by a method of elimination, it is useful to start like that. It is however important to mention that naturally all the nineteen pre-selected referees have their abilities and are, in principle, good referees.
Scottish Craig Thomson is one of these referees. The lawyer specialized in building and engineering law has proven his skills in multiple matches but has frequently failed to get a certain consistency into his performances. No doubt, you need consistency to be reliable and predictable for the men who are in charge of appointing you. His UEFA club competition performances have been good in some matches and poor in some others. Everybody remembers matches like Twente vs Schalke 04 or Borussia Dortmund vs Málaga CF, where he and his team-mates took decisions that aroused (too) much attention in the medial aftermath. Besides, as I often pointed out also in terms of the Slovenian trio, it is relevant to keep in mind that FIFA has to select referee teams and not just the referees. Thomson did not have much luck with his assistant referees. I don't think that I have to go into detail here. Alasdair Ross was subsequently replaced by Alan Mulvanny after his night in Dortmund, Derek Rose stayed in the team, who made an important error in the Scottish team's second match at EURO 2012, too. In Paris vs Olympiakos, Rose furthermore made a very obvious and blatant crucial mistake by missing a clear offside position prior to a goal. Taking all this into account, it should surprise me very much to see Thomson and his team nominated for the World Cup.Nevertheless, there is one matter which might question this conclusion: Thomson was assigned for the U-17 World Cup final between Nigeria and Mexico in 2013 and performed well. It is however difficult to say whether this was a reward for a good tournament meaning that his chances have remarkably increased by that or whether it was just an opportunity to test this official under high pressure. Certainly, this tournament and final did not weaken his chances to be selected. But I doubt that they enlarged it, too. His World Cup qualifiers were not exceptionally important either: Thomson refereed Finland vs France (Oguz Sarvan, TUR) and Romania vs Netherlands (Alfredo Trentalange, ITA, FIFA Committee). Despite Trentalange's importance as observer, I am convinced that these qualifiers and his only FIFA tournament are not enough to compensate or exceed the impression this referee team have conveyed over the past months. Thomson won't be selected from my point of view.
Same probably counts for Czech Republican Pavel Královec. He is, compared to his colleagues on the pre-list, quite inexperienced on the international stage but very familiar with FIFA organized competitions having attended plenty of them. At U-17 World Cup 2011, he showed very good performances in all his matches and almost confirmed it at the Olympic Games in 2012. Based on FIFA's video analysis, he however made at least two crucial mistakes in the semifinal tie between Korea Republic and Brazil. That was unfortunately the last and most striking impression he gave at this competition. At U-17 World Cup 2013, he showed some good performances in not so relevant matches. Due to this high number of FIFA tournaments, Královec was the European referee with the second highest number of FIFA matches since 2010. For sure, he is a referee for the future (born in 1977), who will have strong chances to be chosen for EURO 2016 and also World Cup 2018. That's why the committee are very likely observing his progress that closely. Peter Mikkelsen for example observed him in the World Cup qualifier between Serbia and Belgium. After that, he only took charge of Poland vs Ukraine observed by former World Cup referee Michel Vautrot of France. A quite interesting thing happened in Královec's team in 2012. Originally (back in 2011), his assistant referees were Martin Wilczek and Miroslav Zlamal. Zlamal was then replaced by Kordula following problems with the Czech referee committee. Kordula hence accompanied Královec in many Champions League matches and at Olympic Games 2012 as well. As you probably remember, Královec was one of four standby referees at EURO 2012. Slovakian Roman Slyško, who formerly assisted Luboš Michel, was present at the tournament in Poland and the Ukraine as reserve assistant referee. Královec and Slyško were always appointed together in their matches and were on very good terms on each other in their character. Therefore, Pierluigi Collina had an idea. Upon consultation with Dagmar Damková, he asked Královec whether he could imagine to be assisted by Slyško in future. He agreed (or he had to agree). Certainly, Slyško is a very good and, in particular, very experienced assistant. But I don't want to know how it must have felt for Kordula. I however doubt that this potentially political move will impress Busacca. I don't see a chance for Královec to receive a World Cup call-up. At least not in 2014.
Having excluded these two referee trios, I would like to presume that the following three officiating teams are about to be safely chosen next week. We can start with Dutchman Björn Kuipers who has been recently elected as Europe's Best Referee of the last 2012/13 campaign and as the World's Best Referee of 2013 by our community. Since his actually poor EURO 2012, he has become a rising star in UEFA by showing excellent performances along with his two assistant referees. I often enough expressed my estimation for this referee so that I would like to shorten it a bit. Given the FIFA Confederations Cup final and the very good performances in Champions League, Europa League and World Cup qualifier matches (Austria vs Germany with Bertrand Layec (FRA), Bosnia vs Greece with Markus Nobs (SUI), Poland vs Montenegro with Dušan Krchnak (SVK), Switzerland vs Slovenia with Miroslav Tulinger (CZE) and, in the play-offs, Croatia vs Iceland with David Elleray (ENG, UEFA Committee)). These observers indicate that FIFA had no doubts about this referee after his brilliant Confed Cup. The Netherlands will finally have a World Cup referee again - Jan Wegereef was the last official who had received such a nomination in 2002.
Portugal's Pedro Proença is next. Without any doubt, his year 2012 was fantastic. He performed well in four EURO 2012 matches including the final between Spain and Italy. Only a few weeks earlier, he had very well overseen the Champions League final between hosts Bayern München and Chelsea FC. Along with Bertino Miranda and his flexibly changing assistant referees Ricardo Santos (until 2012) and Tiago Trigo (since 2012), he surely heads one of the most reliable European trios. It should not be veiled that they had remarkable problems after these finals though. Proença's group stage in 2012/13 UEFA Champions League was nothing else but poor. Somehow, he did not show the necessary concentration and feeling for the game in his matches anymore. This impression intensified in the World Cup qualifier between Germany and Sweden, the famous 4:4. Proença missed two fouls preceding two Swedish goals and showed some inconsistencies apart from that, too. Maybe that's quite human after this previous season he had. Probably he asked the committee and specially Collina for a small break in the k.o. stage, where he did not receive a match, which should be principally considered as quite odd speaking of a referee who handled two huge finals in the previous season. However, he returned onto the pitch leaving ambivalent sentiments: Ukraine vs England and Napoli vs Dortmund have been quite good, while Galatasaray vs Juventus and specially his World Cup play-off between Greece and Romania (Juan Fernández Marín, ESP) were not that good. Concerning his World Cup qualifiers and the respective assessors - they show that FIFA seems to be quite sure about this referee: Hungary vs Netherlands (Andreas Schluchter, SUI), Germany vs Sweden (Stefano Farina, ITA), Ukraine vs England (Oguz Sarvan, TUR), Albania vs Switzerland (Michel Vautrot, FRA) and finally his play-off mentioned above. No real high-profile observer is among them (= committee or very high importance / power). Proença's only FIFA competition was the Confed Cup, where he took charge of the opener match and Uruguay vs Tahiti. Both performances were good, even though he partly struggled to maintain the full control in the second match.
The Portuguese's merits acquired in 2012 are simply too big to ignore them. Even though Proença did not count to the best officials in the last year, he is a safe bet for the World Cup list in my opinion.
One of the officials with the most remarkable development over the last year(s) has been Swedish Jonas Eriksson. To be honest, I did not believe he could take such a progress back in 2010 or 2011. But he showed totally convincing performances and has a quality most of his colleagues in the Elite Group can only aspire or dream of: his player management and natural authority are amazing and respectable. This became visible in the combatted qualifier between the Ukraine and Poland, for example. Due to the high importance and tight situation in the group then, this Eastern European duel started with much heat already in the very first minutes. It was impressive to see how a referee's determination and approach can calm down and control such intense matches after some minutes. That's the maybe most important strength of a referee at this level, which also qualified him to take charge of a Europa League semifinal and the Super Cup final 2013 between Bayern and Chelsea. His assistant referees Klasenius and Wärnmark are very good as well.
If Eriksson was a totally complete referee, he would be UEFA's hero and of course, everybody has his weakness, or in UEFA diplomacy, "points to improve". In his case, I felt that the accuracy in the decision-taking (midfield duels, penalty area incidents) can sometimes turn out to be a problem. He can easily avoid that in future and the past matches have been much better in this regard, maybe with the exception of Ajax vs AC Milan where he awarded a wrong penalty kick in the additional time which had a crucial impact on the group standings.
Eriksson fully convinced at his only FIFA tournament, the U-20 World Cup 2013. After a rather debatable red card in his first match, he handled Spain vs France and a semifinal in a very good manner. Specially the semifinal that went into penalty shoot-out was tough to control, but the Swedish completely succeeded in it. In our referee observation reports, Eriksson also has one of the highest mark averages, by the way. His World Cup qualifiers were Scotland vs Serbia assessed by FIFA Committee member Michael Riley (ENG), Montenegro vs England (Miroslav Liba, CZE), Italy vs Czech Republic (Jean Lemmer, LUX) and last but not least the already mentioned Ukraine vs Poland match observed by Belgium's Guy Goethals. Furthermore, Eriksson was appointed to take control over an intercontinental play-off. In Montevideo's famous Centenario Stadium, he showed a good performance in Uruguay vs Jordan having correctly rejected an appeal for a penalty kick due to an allegedly deliberate handball. This match was observed by Greek UEFA Committee member Kyros Vassaras.
In a nutshell I can only say that Eriksson definitely has the format of a World Cup referee. And I predict that he will be selected, too. Some matches could require this type of refereeing. Perhaps even Netherlands vs Spain.
These three officials don't have to tremble if my predictions and reading of the situation are right. Does this also count for certain referees everybody would have called "100% World Cup referees" a year ago?
Viktor Kassai is one of them. The Hungarian, who became the youngest Champions League final referee ever in 2011, had to fight for his World Cup place from my point of view. Specially after EURO 2012, Bayern München vs FC Barcelona and the following U-20 World Cup, where he did not show his best, gave some cause for concern. We all remember the missed goal by his AAR1 István Vad in the Ukraine which excluded the Hungarian team from the entire k.o. stage (even though Kassai himself was good in both matches). This weak trend specially counts for his assistant referee Gábor Erös. The 42-year old made way too many crucial mistakes in the past and was consequently replaced by Vencel Tóth in UEFA competitions and not invited to the last UEFA seminar. At the same time, Erös has stayed on the pre-list. The explanation could be quite easy. On FIFA level, i.e. on the pre-list, the national association and the main referee himself can decide who is to assist him in FIFA tournaments and preferably at the World Cup as well, while on UEFA level the committee select the assistant referees since the start of the current season. Back in late 2010, Erös was diagnosed with cancer but successfully recovered from it and crowned his comeback with his performance in Wembley final. Without any doubt, Kassai and Erös are very much linked on a human side. I could imagine that he is insisting on having Erös in his team no matter what comes. If it is like that, chapeau. Based on performance principle, this is however a hazard. But sometimes having a functioning and deep human relation is much more important than staying faultless in Champions League matches. We talk about a World Cup and not about some individual matches. It's another dimension. His second assistant referee, György Ring, is for sure one of the best ARs Europe has to offer and will greatly contribute to this team.
The most relevant aspect talking about Kassai is however his credit within FIFA. He attended World Cup 2010 as the most inexperienced referee from Europe and left it as the best. His three matches were excellent so that FIFA took a good decision to nominate him for the semifinal between Germany and Spain. Unfortunately, he did not show his best performance because of a missed dogso and some mistakes of his assistants, but in the end, he controlled this match without any card and with many soft skills. This referee cannot stay at home. I am quite sure that FIFA will think exactly in this pattern. His qualifiers were overall good and very important: Russia vs Portugal (Francesco Bianchi, SUI), France vs Spain (Bo Karlsson, SWE, UEFA Committee), Bulgaria vs Czech Republic (Rune Pedersen, NOR) and the intercontinental play-off between Mexico and New Zealand supervised by UEFA Committee member Jozef Marko (SVK) in Estadio Azteca. In the end, Kassai could have had this ticket to Brazil much easier. But I think in the end he got it.
Turkish Cüneyt Çakır was the referee who got our small award as the World's Best Referee one year before Kuipers, in 2012. His EURO 2012 including the Iberian semifinal has been very good. Surely he is one the European referees with the biggest courage. If you remember FC Barcelona vs Chelsea FC, the whole trouble around it, this game's historical background and the tension due to the first leg result, you surely need some courage to send off a worldclass defender such as John Terry without hesitating in the 38th minute. And I am also sure that most of Çakır's colleagues would have chosen the comfortable solution in Old Trafford one year later by not sending off Nani for his high-foot tackle against Real Madrid and only issuing a yellow card. But the Turkish official had enough bottle to take the decision that was correct in his opinion, regardless whether it was unpopular, whether it was hitting the home team and whether Pierluigi Collina was just a few metres away on the seats. If Collina observes such a referee in such a match and in such a stage of Champions League, it is quite apparent that Çakır was originally planned to take charge of Wembley final. But after this medial aftermath and the hysterical reaction by venerable Sir Alex, who has often enough proven his disrespect for refereeing, this was politically not possible anymore, as it seems. According to strong rumours, Çakır was moreover not supported by the committee who voted in favour of a yellow card at a meeting in spring 2013. If this is true - and the source is reliable - that's surely the support you dream of as a referee having had such a match. He did not receive any match after round of 16, maybe to prevent further medial bashing. One thing is remarkable. Since then, Çakır missed three more or less clear red cards in matches that were played in the second part of 2013 (in a match at U-20 World Cup for serious foul play, in Celtic vs AC Milan for a clear serious foul play and in Marseille vs Napoli for a clear violent conduct by using the elbow as a weapon (and also a clear penalty kick, by the way) - Çakır had an optimum line of sight and position to evaluate it as such but only issued yellow cards). I don't want to interpret too much into it. But my honest impression is that some people have managed to streamline Çakır, more or less the bastion of courage in the Elite Group... No courageous decisions anymore, the easy solution instead of the more complicated one, yellow cards instead of red cards. Apparently his insouciance has got lost somehow. It seems as if he has learnt from his own destiny and in the end, that's clever: You obviously get Champions League finals by such a style and by attracting the smallest attention in the media as proven last year. And the Turkish would be stupid to risk something preceding the World Cup. If courage is not rewarded, this can be the result.
FIFA tested Çakır several times in the last years and therefore he is the European referee with the highest number of FIFA matches (13). He was present at U-20 World Cup 2011 in Colombia and took charge of five matches. In 2013, he only handled two matches at the U-20 tournament in his home country. Both performances were acceptable but not really shining. Between these two competitions, he was in control over the 2012 Club World Cup final between Corinthians and Chelsea FC and performed brilliantly. I think that this impression could be most influential with regards to Busacca's selection. Just after Old Trafford, Çakır well refereed the Balcan derby's first leg in Zagreb (Croatia vs Serbia, observed by German Edgar Steinborn). Before that, he had already whistled England vs Ukraine at Wembley having some problems (Jean Lemmer, LUX) and after the derby, he was in charge of Sweden vs Austria assessed by FIFA Committee member Michael Riley. In Sweden, he sent off an Austrian for a headbutt that originally arised from his Swedish opponent. Therefore, the red card was a wrong decision or should have at least been accompanied by a red card for the Swedish as well (a typical category 3 decision). In a sum one can say that his qualifiers were overall important, but that his performances were not always great. In the play-offs, he was much better and somehow was the "old Çakır". In Ukraine vs France, he showed a very high level of match control, correctly evaluated at least four penalty area decisions including a given penalty kick and rightly sent off two players. This match was observed by Alfredo Trentalange and therefore one of the most important matches of the Turkish official's path to the World Cup.
Along with Bahattin Duran and Tarik Ongun, I believe that Busacca will take the correct decision as we were mostly used to in his active career - Çakır should be in the World Cup list. But without any doubt, he is not as sure as he was a year ago anymore.
Only four referees are left for the remaining two places. As I reckon the previously mentioned officials as main- and not standby referees, we are looking for the last referee team acting on the pitch and one team managing the benches and assisting the trios as fourth official and reserve assistant respectively.
UEFA Referee Committee's favourite referee seems to be Milorad Mažić from Serbia at the moment. His progress has been impressive over the last couple of months and he has definitely arrived at the peak of European refereeing. Appointments for matches like FC Barcelona vs AC Milan or Arsenal FC vs SSC Napoli reinforce that. And although he is only in Elite Group since last June, his mark average is probably one of the highest of all officials. His style is definitely unique. There was not any very clear mistake in his UEFA matches recently - even though I still regard the penalty kick given in Camp Nou as a wrong decision, but that depends on the individual assessment of the observer. And as Vlado Sajn was the observer in this match, who is responsible for Balcan refereeing in the committee, it is very unprobable that he ruled this whistle as a crucial mistake.
At any rate, Mažić's approach is maybe a bit similar to Çakır's in terms of their insouciance. The Serbian is doing his job on the pitch and not impressed by big names, stadiums or other surrounding circumstances. His decision-taking is accurate and following a clear line. His biggest point to improve is his card management which is sometimes a bit inconsistent for my taste. Inspite of his inexperience compared to some of his colleagues, he has turned out to be a very stable referee to whom one can entrust big clashes. But, as said, he is inexperienced despite his rather advanced age. That's why FIFA followed this referee more intensely and closely than most of the other officials. Many FIFA Committee members and powerful observers supervised his matches, particularly in the qualifiers: Estonia vs Romania (Alfredo Trentalange, ITA), Turkey vs Hungary (Stephen Bennett, ENG), Germany vs Austria (Peter Mikkelsen, DEN) and Azerbaijan vs Russia (Siegfried Kirschen, GER). In addition he was selected to handle the second leg between Romania and Greece (again Alfredo Trentalange) in the play-offs, where he missed a penalty kick and struggled a bit in the rest of the game as well. Unfortunately, Mažić had his "worst" performances in these qualifiers. On the other hand, his only FIFA competition was quite good (U-20 World Cup 2013). In the end, I have my doubts that this referee will be chosen by Busacca. Of course Collina can potentially lobby a bit for him sitting at the table in Zurich next week. But in Mažić's own interest, I would propose to consider him for EURO 2016 and World Cup 2018 only. He needs more experience and should not be overloaded with too much at once. Thus the place as fourth official would be an option, but I expect someone else there. It is a pity, but I think that this World Cup comes a year too early for the Serbian trio.
Can you imagine a World Cup without a French referee team? Personally, I could in my fantasy but surely not in reality. Undoubtfully, French refereeing is in a difficult time. Since Alain Sars, they have actually not produced any real top referee in recent years. Stéphane Lannoy has achieved a lot such as a semifinal at EURO 2012, but he is not a real top referee either. They are surely aiming at closing the gap between Lannoy, born in 1969, and the next generation referees such as Turpin or Bastien, who still need time as they are quite young. Therefore, the committee apparently have put trust, hopes or at least their best wishes into referees like Tony Chapron or Antony Gautier, who were unable to fulfill these expectations on international level. The last word is not said in Gautier's case, but he is surely far behind the requirements that the pending EURO 2016 in France is actually demanding. So, it is Lannoy who is planned to go to Brazil. Maybe he is even going to finish his international career there. Some honest words must be said at this point.
FIFA's experiences with Lannoy are de facto disastrous. His performances at World Cup 2010 were below expected level. While he still performed solidly in Netherlands vs Denmark, Brazil vs Côte d'Ivoire certainly was one of the worst performances of the entire World Cup. No control, missed red cards and two missed deliberate handballs by Luis Fabiano prior to a goal are the summary. And not to forget that he even asked Fabiano whether he had handled the ball. For some odd reasons, Busacca was sent home and Lannoy stayed until the round of 16 accompanying Undiano into Netherlands vs Slovakia - this circumstance might be quite ironical but in the end well mirrors FIFA's special interpretation of the performance principle. So the fact that Lannoy has already attended a World Cup is in his case no advantage but rather a deterrent factor. At least it should be like that.
At EURO 2012 and specially in the first half of 2013 (having been injured in late 2012), Lannoy has proven to be an absolutely reliable and solid referee though. He benefits from his experience and has really improved over the time. As said, Lannoy suffered from an injury in 2012 so that he missed the whole group stage of CL. He came back with a very good performance in Israel vs Portugal observed by Alfredo Trentalange. Lannoy confirmed this positive impression in Belgium vs Serbia (Roberto Rosetti, ITA). And the last qualifier was rather irrelevant (Denmark vs Italy, Leslie Irvine from Northern Ireland was the observer). His U-20 World Cup was quite good. Although he only got two matches, he showed good performances and a high level of authority and control. Nonetheless, there is one fact leading to some doubts in my mind. Lannoy did not get a play-off, neither on European, nor on intercontinental level. Of course not every pre-list referees can get a play-off, as there were only 12 of them. But if he had savoured really big confidence by the committee, he could have got one of the important matches, which he did not. At the evening of the play-offs, he well refereed the friendly between England and Germany as a compensation - perhaps FIFA even used this match as another opportunity to observe Lannoy internally. And, another thing. The French official's group stage in Champions League has been quite poor. He slightly struggled in Celtic vs FC Barcelona, lacked self-confidence and authority in FC Basel vs Chelsea FC and made a clear and very strange crucial mistake in Leverkusen vs Shakhtar. So this group stage is no real argument for Lannoy. But I am actually sure that FIFA will choose a French trio just for political reasons and with Lannoy they have found a referee who seems to be rather reliable on his good days, which would justify the selection. However, I cannot imagine to see him as fourth official only. It would be in line with performance principle, but I don't think so. This place is reserved for either Moen or Skomina according to my predictions.
Comparing Moen and Skomina is difficult. Moen is younger and more inexperienced, Skomina is older and higher appreciated by UEFA. Both are in the Elite Group for a while and have developed to reliable and good referees. Skomina was entrusted to big matches already in 2011 and specially in 2012, while Moen has just become a candidate for such clashes. The Slovenian showed an overall satisfying EURO 2012 but nothing more. Despite his crucial mistake in Netherlands vs Denmark, he was allowed to stay at the tournament and even handled a round of 16 match, basically because some other referees made the more obvious mistakes (= more medial attention). It is apparent in every match Skomina handles that he has not finished his development and is still able to improve. He is surely one of the more lenient referees offering the play and players more room to prosper than his colleagues. Mostly this style worked and led to good matches. Matches like Chelsea FC vs SL Benfica in 2012 or FC Barcelona vs Bayern München show that he has reached the peak of UEFA refereeing and is able to perform well in these matches with some room for improvement. This positive trend culminated in being the fourth official in Wembley final 2013.
However, things have become different in 2013/14, i.e. in the decisive period prior to the World Cup. In Manchester Utd. vs Leverkusen, his young assistant referee Matej Žunič missed a clear offside goal leading to some controversies in its aftermath. The Slovenian team had shown that they were not functioning as a team by 100%. Of course, mistakes can happen and this one was even easy to avoid. But unfortunately, something similar happened in their play-off match between France and the Ukraine in Stade de France. Žunič made two crucial mistakes within a short period of time, mistakes that were a step too obvious and intensifying the impression conveyed in Manchester that this team are lacking in teamwork and interaction. Skomina's assistant referee did not appear in the line-up of the Champions League match in Plzen - a suspension is possible and also probable. Originally Skomina was foreseen to take charge of Celtic vs AC Milan in Champions League but got a break as well. I personally believe that until this play-off, Skomina was actually a sure name for the World Cup. Since he does not have that much support and credit in FIFA (contrary to Kassai, Lannoy etc.), such clear mistakes are painful and could cost the World Cup. As I often stressed in these analyses, referee trios are selected and if a team turn out to fail in working appropiately, that's no good basis for selecting this team. And France vs Ukraine was observed by Peter Mikkelsen - the committee were therefore table to see these mistakes live. By the way, since Primož Arhar and Marko Stančin left Skomina's team due to their age (1968), there are multiple young and inexperienced assistant referees. Apparently, there is nobody who could swiftly replace Žunič if this had been a topic; the generation change of assistant referees seems to be quite hard.
Skomina moreover only attended one FIFA competition, U-20 World Cup 2013, where he handled two matches. Among his World Cup qualifiers, there was only one real top-class match: Portugal vs Russia observed by Adrian Casha of Malta. He performed well, correctly rejected a penalty appeal for an allegedly deliberate handball but actually fell for a dive of CR7 leading to the only goal of the evening after the consecutive free-kick. His other qualifiers were Italy vs Denmark (Kaj Natri, FIN), Ireland vs Sweden (László Vagner, HUN) and England vs Poland (Jaap Uilenberg, NED, UEFA Committee). He performed very well in these matches, specially at Wembley.
The conclusion is very difficult to draw. Even though I think that Skomina would deserve the World Cup ticket, the play-off, the defective teamwork and predominantly the missing support within FIFA lead me to the assumption that there won't be a Slovenian team at the World Cup. I don't hope it, but I fear so.
Another sign indicating that is the rising development of Svein Moen over the last months. Last season, he got some sonorous and important matches like Arsenal FC vs Bayern München or Real Madrid vs Galatasaray, but did not manage to totally convince in these matches. But at least this has clearly shown the very positive and promising trend the 34-year-old paramedic has been taking. In 2013/14 group stage, FC Barcelona vs Ajax Amsterdam, Chelsea FC vs Schalke 04 and Leverkusen vs Manchester Utd. were his matches. Surely not the worst ones. And his good performance at Stamford Bridge was furthermore observed by UEFA Vice Chief Officer of Refereeing Marc Batta. While Skomina's team more or less failed in Paris, Moen showed a very good performance in the intercontinental play-off between Jordan and Uruguay in front of Bertrand Layec. Appointing such a young referee for this match emphasizes the trust Busacca must have in him - even though a political background cannot be excluded, as always. And that's the interesting point: FIFA seems to rate Moen much higher than UEFA does. Moen took charge of twelve FIFA matches, among others of the U-17 World Cup final in front of almost 100.000 supporters in Estadio Azteca in 2011 (Erwin Zeinstra, Kuipers' AR2, was his assistant by the way). Additionally, he took part in the Olympic Games and in U-17 World Cup 2013, where he confirmed the positive development in matches like Brazil vs Mexico. His qualifiers were not always totally important but overall good. The observers were never members of the referee committee, which was not necessary due to his high number of FIFA tournaments. Anyway some important Scottish assessors were present in his games: Georgia vs Spain with Jan Fasung (SVK), Czech Republic vs Italy with Donald McVicar (SCO, Balotelli was correctly sent off in this match) and Romania vs Turkey with Alan Freeland (SCO) were his matches. Busacca and company seem to like Moen and UEFA has started to push him more this season. That's why I believe both federations are putting great trust into this young referee looking forward to EURO 2016, World Cup 2018 and more. That's why they could consider it as an excellent opportunity to accredit Moen with some useful experiences and insights at World Cup 2014 forming the standby team with his assistant referees Kim Haglund and Frank Andås. No doubt, actually Skomina is a level above Moen taking into account their achievements and experience, but in FIFA, different things can make the difference.
After this long but hopefully not tiring speech, I predict / propose these European referees for World Cup 2014. At the bottom you can furthermore find the complete overviews on my predictions and the community vote ("the wisdom of the crowd"):
Having excluded these two referee trios, I would like to presume that the following three officiating teams are about to be safely chosen next week. We can start with Dutchman Björn Kuipers who has been recently elected as Europe's Best Referee of the last 2012/13 campaign and as the World's Best Referee of 2013 by our community. Since his actually poor EURO 2012, he has become a rising star in UEFA by showing excellent performances along with his two assistant referees. I often enough expressed my estimation for this referee so that I would like to shorten it a bit. Given the FIFA Confederations Cup final and the very good performances in Champions League, Europa League and World Cup qualifier matches (Austria vs Germany with Bertrand Layec (FRA), Bosnia vs Greece with Markus Nobs (SUI), Poland vs Montenegro with Dušan Krchnak (SVK), Switzerland vs Slovenia with Miroslav Tulinger (CZE) and, in the play-offs, Croatia vs Iceland with David Elleray (ENG, UEFA Committee)). These observers indicate that FIFA had no doubts about this referee after his brilliant Confed Cup. The Netherlands will finally have a World Cup referee again - Jan Wegereef was the last official who had received such a nomination in 2002.
Portugal's Pedro Proença is next. Without any doubt, his year 2012 was fantastic. He performed well in four EURO 2012 matches including the final between Spain and Italy. Only a few weeks earlier, he had very well overseen the Champions League final between hosts Bayern München and Chelsea FC. Along with Bertino Miranda and his flexibly changing assistant referees Ricardo Santos (until 2012) and Tiago Trigo (since 2012), he surely heads one of the most reliable European trios. It should not be veiled that they had remarkable problems after these finals though. Proença's group stage in 2012/13 UEFA Champions League was nothing else but poor. Somehow, he did not show the necessary concentration and feeling for the game in his matches anymore. This impression intensified in the World Cup qualifier between Germany and Sweden, the famous 4:4. Proença missed two fouls preceding two Swedish goals and showed some inconsistencies apart from that, too. Maybe that's quite human after this previous season he had. Probably he asked the committee and specially Collina for a small break in the k.o. stage, where he did not receive a match, which should be principally considered as quite odd speaking of a referee who handled two huge finals in the previous season. However, he returned onto the pitch leaving ambivalent sentiments: Ukraine vs England and Napoli vs Dortmund have been quite good, while Galatasaray vs Juventus and specially his World Cup play-off between Greece and Romania (Juan Fernández Marín, ESP) were not that good. Concerning his World Cup qualifiers and the respective assessors - they show that FIFA seems to be quite sure about this referee: Hungary vs Netherlands (Andreas Schluchter, SUI), Germany vs Sweden (Stefano Farina, ITA), Ukraine vs England (Oguz Sarvan, TUR), Albania vs Switzerland (Michel Vautrot, FRA) and finally his play-off mentioned above. No real high-profile observer is among them (= committee or very high importance / power). Proença's only FIFA competition was the Confed Cup, where he took charge of the opener match and Uruguay vs Tahiti. Both performances were good, even though he partly struggled to maintain the full control in the second match.The Portuguese's merits acquired in 2012 are simply too big to ignore them. Even though Proença did not count to the best officials in the last year, he is a safe bet for the World Cup list in my opinion.
One of the officials with the most remarkable development over the last year(s) has been Swedish Jonas Eriksson. To be honest, I did not believe he could take such a progress back in 2010 or 2011. But he showed totally convincing performances and has a quality most of his colleagues in the Elite Group can only aspire or dream of: his player management and natural authority are amazing and respectable. This became visible in the combatted qualifier between the Ukraine and Poland, for example. Due to the high importance and tight situation in the group then, this Eastern European duel started with much heat already in the very first minutes. It was impressive to see how a referee's determination and approach can calm down and control such intense matches after some minutes. That's the maybe most important strength of a referee at this level, which also qualified him to take charge of a Europa League semifinal and the Super Cup final 2013 between Bayern and Chelsea. His assistant referees Klasenius and Wärnmark are very good as well.If Eriksson was a totally complete referee, he would be UEFA's hero and of course, everybody has his weakness, or in UEFA diplomacy, "points to improve". In his case, I felt that the accuracy in the decision-taking (midfield duels, penalty area incidents) can sometimes turn out to be a problem. He can easily avoid that in future and the past matches have been much better in this regard, maybe with the exception of Ajax vs AC Milan where he awarded a wrong penalty kick in the additional time which had a crucial impact on the group standings.
Eriksson fully convinced at his only FIFA tournament, the U-20 World Cup 2013. After a rather debatable red card in his first match, he handled Spain vs France and a semifinal in a very good manner. Specially the semifinal that went into penalty shoot-out was tough to control, but the Swedish completely succeeded in it. In our referee observation reports, Eriksson also has one of the highest mark averages, by the way. His World Cup qualifiers were Scotland vs Serbia assessed by FIFA Committee member Michael Riley (ENG), Montenegro vs England (Miroslav Liba, CZE), Italy vs Czech Republic (Jean Lemmer, LUX) and last but not least the already mentioned Ukraine vs Poland match observed by Belgium's Guy Goethals. Furthermore, Eriksson was appointed to take control over an intercontinental play-off. In Montevideo's famous Centenario Stadium, he showed a good performance in Uruguay vs Jordan having correctly rejected an appeal for a penalty kick due to an allegedly deliberate handball. This match was observed by Greek UEFA Committee member Kyros Vassaras.
In a nutshell I can only say that Eriksson definitely has the format of a World Cup referee. And I predict that he will be selected, too. Some matches could require this type of refereeing. Perhaps even Netherlands vs Spain.
These three officials don't have to tremble if my predictions and reading of the situation are right. Does this also count for certain referees everybody would have called "100% World Cup referees" a year ago?
Viktor Kassai is one of them. The Hungarian, who became the youngest Champions League final referee ever in 2011, had to fight for his World Cup place from my point of view. Specially after EURO 2012, Bayern München vs FC Barcelona and the following U-20 World Cup, where he did not show his best, gave some cause for concern. We all remember the missed goal by his AAR1 István Vad in the Ukraine which excluded the Hungarian team from the entire k.o. stage (even though Kassai himself was good in both matches). This weak trend specially counts for his assistant referee Gábor Erös. The 42-year old made way too many crucial mistakes in the past and was consequently replaced by Vencel Tóth in UEFA competitions and not invited to the last UEFA seminar. At the same time, Erös has stayed on the pre-list. The explanation could be quite easy. On FIFA level, i.e. on the pre-list, the national association and the main referee himself can decide who is to assist him in FIFA tournaments and preferably at the World Cup as well, while on UEFA level the committee select the assistant referees since the start of the current season. Back in late 2010, Erös was diagnosed with cancer but successfully recovered from it and crowned his comeback with his performance in Wembley final. Without any doubt, Kassai and Erös are very much linked on a human side. I could imagine that he is insisting on having Erös in his team no matter what comes. If it is like that, chapeau. Based on performance principle, this is however a hazard. But sometimes having a functioning and deep human relation is much more important than staying faultless in Champions League matches. We talk about a World Cup and not about some individual matches. It's another dimension. His second assistant referee, György Ring, is for sure one of the best ARs Europe has to offer and will greatly contribute to this team.The most relevant aspect talking about Kassai is however his credit within FIFA. He attended World Cup 2010 as the most inexperienced referee from Europe and left it as the best. His three matches were excellent so that FIFA took a good decision to nominate him for the semifinal between Germany and Spain. Unfortunately, he did not show his best performance because of a missed dogso and some mistakes of his assistants, but in the end, he controlled this match without any card and with many soft skills. This referee cannot stay at home. I am quite sure that FIFA will think exactly in this pattern. His qualifiers were overall good and very important: Russia vs Portugal (Francesco Bianchi, SUI), France vs Spain (Bo Karlsson, SWE, UEFA Committee), Bulgaria vs Czech Republic (Rune Pedersen, NOR) and the intercontinental play-off between Mexico and New Zealand supervised by UEFA Committee member Jozef Marko (SVK) in Estadio Azteca. In the end, Kassai could have had this ticket to Brazil much easier. But I think in the end he got it.
Turkish Cüneyt Çakır was the referee who got our small award as the World's Best Referee one year before Kuipers, in 2012. His EURO 2012 including the Iberian semifinal has been very good. Surely he is one the European referees with the biggest courage. If you remember FC Barcelona vs Chelsea FC, the whole trouble around it, this game's historical background and the tension due to the first leg result, you surely need some courage to send off a worldclass defender such as John Terry without hesitating in the 38th minute. And I am also sure that most of Çakır's colleagues would have chosen the comfortable solution in Old Trafford one year later by not sending off Nani for his high-foot tackle against Real Madrid and only issuing a yellow card. But the Turkish official had enough bottle to take the decision that was correct in his opinion, regardless whether it was unpopular, whether it was hitting the home team and whether Pierluigi Collina was just a few metres away on the seats. If Collina observes such a referee in such a match and in such a stage of Champions League, it is quite apparent that Çakır was originally planned to take charge of Wembley final. But after this medial aftermath and the hysterical reaction by venerable Sir Alex, who has often enough proven his disrespect for refereeing, this was politically not possible anymore, as it seems. According to strong rumours, Çakır was moreover not supported by the committee who voted in favour of a yellow card at a meeting in spring 2013. If this is true - and the source is reliable - that's surely the support you dream of as a referee having had such a match. He did not receive any match after round of 16, maybe to prevent further medial bashing. One thing is remarkable. Since then, Çakır missed three more or less clear red cards in matches that were played in the second part of 2013 (in a match at U-20 World Cup for serious foul play, in Celtic vs AC Milan for a clear serious foul play and in Marseille vs Napoli for a clear violent conduct by using the elbow as a weapon (and also a clear penalty kick, by the way) - Çakır had an optimum line of sight and position to evaluate it as such but only issued yellow cards). I don't want to interpret too much into it. But my honest impression is that some people have managed to streamline Çakır, more or less the bastion of courage in the Elite Group... No courageous decisions anymore, the easy solution instead of the more complicated one, yellow cards instead of red cards. Apparently his insouciance has got lost somehow. It seems as if he has learnt from his own destiny and in the end, that's clever: You obviously get Champions League finals by such a style and by attracting the smallest attention in the media as proven last year. And the Turkish would be stupid to risk something preceding the World Cup. If courage is not rewarded, this can be the result. FIFA tested Çakır several times in the last years and therefore he is the European referee with the highest number of FIFA matches (13). He was present at U-20 World Cup 2011 in Colombia and took charge of five matches. In 2013, he only handled two matches at the U-20 tournament in his home country. Both performances were acceptable but not really shining. Between these two competitions, he was in control over the 2012 Club World Cup final between Corinthians and Chelsea FC and performed brilliantly. I think that this impression could be most influential with regards to Busacca's selection. Just after Old Trafford, Çakır well refereed the Balcan derby's first leg in Zagreb (Croatia vs Serbia, observed by German Edgar Steinborn). Before that, he had already whistled England vs Ukraine at Wembley having some problems (Jean Lemmer, LUX) and after the derby, he was in charge of Sweden vs Austria assessed by FIFA Committee member Michael Riley. In Sweden, he sent off an Austrian for a headbutt that originally arised from his Swedish opponent. Therefore, the red card was a wrong decision or should have at least been accompanied by a red card for the Swedish as well (a typical category 3 decision). In a sum one can say that his qualifiers were overall important, but that his performances were not always great. In the play-offs, he was much better and somehow was the "old Çakır". In Ukraine vs France, he showed a very high level of match control, correctly evaluated at least four penalty area decisions including a given penalty kick and rightly sent off two players. This match was observed by Alfredo Trentalange and therefore one of the most important matches of the Turkish official's path to the World Cup.
Along with Bahattin Duran and Tarik Ongun, I believe that Busacca will take the correct decision as we were mostly used to in his active career - Çakır should be in the World Cup list. But without any doubt, he is not as sure as he was a year ago anymore.
Only four referees are left for the remaining two places. As I reckon the previously mentioned officials as main- and not standby referees, we are looking for the last referee team acting on the pitch and one team managing the benches and assisting the trios as fourth official and reserve assistant respectively.
At any rate, Mažić's approach is maybe a bit similar to Çakır's in terms of their insouciance. The Serbian is doing his job on the pitch and not impressed by big names, stadiums or other surrounding circumstances. His decision-taking is accurate and following a clear line. His biggest point to improve is his card management which is sometimes a bit inconsistent for my taste. Inspite of his inexperience compared to some of his colleagues, he has turned out to be a very stable referee to whom one can entrust big clashes. But, as said, he is inexperienced despite his rather advanced age. That's why FIFA followed this referee more intensely and closely than most of the other officials. Many FIFA Committee members and powerful observers supervised his matches, particularly in the qualifiers: Estonia vs Romania (Alfredo Trentalange, ITA), Turkey vs Hungary (Stephen Bennett, ENG), Germany vs Austria (Peter Mikkelsen, DEN) and Azerbaijan vs Russia (Siegfried Kirschen, GER). In addition he was selected to handle the second leg between Romania and Greece (again Alfredo Trentalange) in the play-offs, where he missed a penalty kick and struggled a bit in the rest of the game as well. Unfortunately, Mažić had his "worst" performances in these qualifiers. On the other hand, his only FIFA competition was quite good (U-20 World Cup 2013). In the end, I have my doubts that this referee will be chosen by Busacca. Of course Collina can potentially lobby a bit for him sitting at the table in Zurich next week. But in Mažić's own interest, I would propose to consider him for EURO 2016 and World Cup 2018 only. He needs more experience and should not be overloaded with too much at once. Thus the place as fourth official would be an option, but I expect someone else there. It is a pity, but I think that this World Cup comes a year too early for the Serbian trio.
Can you imagine a World Cup without a French referee team? Personally, I could in my fantasy but surely not in reality. Undoubtfully, French refereeing is in a difficult time. Since Alain Sars, they have actually not produced any real top referee in recent years. Stéphane Lannoy has achieved a lot such as a semifinal at EURO 2012, but he is not a real top referee either. They are surely aiming at closing the gap between Lannoy, born in 1969, and the next generation referees such as Turpin or Bastien, who still need time as they are quite young. Therefore, the committee apparently have put trust, hopes or at least their best wishes into referees like Tony Chapron or Antony Gautier, who were unable to fulfill these expectations on international level. The last word is not said in Gautier's case, but he is surely far behind the requirements that the pending EURO 2016 in France is actually demanding. So, it is Lannoy who is planned to go to Brazil. Maybe he is even going to finish his international career there. Some honest words must be said at this point.
At EURO 2012 and specially in the first half of 2013 (having been injured in late 2012), Lannoy has proven to be an absolutely reliable and solid referee though. He benefits from his experience and has really improved over the time. As said, Lannoy suffered from an injury in 2012 so that he missed the whole group stage of CL. He came back with a very good performance in Israel vs Portugal observed by Alfredo Trentalange. Lannoy confirmed this positive impression in Belgium vs Serbia (Roberto Rosetti, ITA). And the last qualifier was rather irrelevant (Denmark vs Italy, Leslie Irvine from Northern Ireland was the observer). His U-20 World Cup was quite good. Although he only got two matches, he showed good performances and a high level of authority and control. Nonetheless, there is one fact leading to some doubts in my mind. Lannoy did not get a play-off, neither on European, nor on intercontinental level. Of course not every pre-list referees can get a play-off, as there were only 12 of them. But if he had savoured really big confidence by the committee, he could have got one of the important matches, which he did not. At the evening of the play-offs, he well refereed the friendly between England and Germany as a compensation - perhaps FIFA even used this match as another opportunity to observe Lannoy internally. And, another thing. The French official's group stage in Champions League has been quite poor. He slightly struggled in Celtic vs FC Barcelona, lacked self-confidence and authority in FC Basel vs Chelsea FC and made a clear and very strange crucial mistake in Leverkusen vs Shakhtar. So this group stage is no real argument for Lannoy. But I am actually sure that FIFA will choose a French trio just for political reasons and with Lannoy they have found a referee who seems to be rather reliable on his good days, which would justify the selection. However, I cannot imagine to see him as fourth official only. It would be in line with performance principle, but I don't think so. This place is reserved for either Moen or Skomina according to my predictions.
Comparing Moen and Skomina is difficult. Moen is younger and more inexperienced, Skomina is older and higher appreciated by UEFA. Both are in the Elite Group for a while and have developed to reliable and good referees. Skomina was entrusted to big matches already in 2011 and specially in 2012, while Moen has just become a candidate for such clashes. The Slovenian showed an overall satisfying EURO 2012 but nothing more. Despite his crucial mistake in Netherlands vs Denmark, he was allowed to stay at the tournament and even handled a round of 16 match, basically because some other referees made the more obvious mistakes (= more medial attention). It is apparent in every match Skomina handles that he has not finished his development and is still able to improve. He is surely one of the more lenient referees offering the play and players more room to prosper than his colleagues. Mostly this style worked and led to good matches. Matches like Chelsea FC vs SL Benfica in 2012 or FC Barcelona vs Bayern München show that he has reached the peak of UEFA refereeing and is able to perform well in these matches with some room for improvement. This positive trend culminated in being the fourth official in Wembley final 2013.However, things have become different in 2013/14, i.e. in the decisive period prior to the World Cup. In Manchester Utd. vs Leverkusen, his young assistant referee Matej Žunič missed a clear offside goal leading to some controversies in its aftermath. The Slovenian team had shown that they were not functioning as a team by 100%. Of course, mistakes can happen and this one was even easy to avoid. But unfortunately, something similar happened in their play-off match between France and the Ukraine in Stade de France. Žunič made two crucial mistakes within a short period of time, mistakes that were a step too obvious and intensifying the impression conveyed in Manchester that this team are lacking in teamwork and interaction. Skomina's assistant referee did not appear in the line-up of the Champions League match in Plzen - a suspension is possible and also probable. Originally Skomina was foreseen to take charge of Celtic vs AC Milan in Champions League but got a break as well. I personally believe that until this play-off, Skomina was actually a sure name for the World Cup. Since he does not have that much support and credit in FIFA (contrary to Kassai, Lannoy etc.), such clear mistakes are painful and could cost the World Cup. As I often stressed in these analyses, referee trios are selected and if a team turn out to fail in working appropiately, that's no good basis for selecting this team. And France vs Ukraine was observed by Peter Mikkelsen - the committee were therefore table to see these mistakes live. By the way, since Primož Arhar and Marko Stančin left Skomina's team due to their age (1968), there are multiple young and inexperienced assistant referees. Apparently, there is nobody who could swiftly replace Žunič if this had been a topic; the generation change of assistant referees seems to be quite hard.
Skomina moreover only attended one FIFA competition, U-20 World Cup 2013, where he handled two matches. Among his World Cup qualifiers, there was only one real top-class match: Portugal vs Russia observed by Adrian Casha of Malta. He performed well, correctly rejected a penalty appeal for an allegedly deliberate handball but actually fell for a dive of CR7 leading to the only goal of the evening after the consecutive free-kick. His other qualifiers were Italy vs Denmark (Kaj Natri, FIN), Ireland vs Sweden (László Vagner, HUN) and England vs Poland (Jaap Uilenberg, NED, UEFA Committee). He performed very well in these matches, specially at Wembley.
The conclusion is very difficult to draw. Even though I think that Skomina would deserve the World Cup ticket, the play-off, the defective teamwork and predominantly the missing support within FIFA lead me to the assumption that there won't be a Slovenian team at the World Cup. I don't hope it, but I fear so.
Another sign indicating that is the rising development of Svein Moen over the last months. Last season, he got some sonorous and important matches like Arsenal FC vs Bayern München or Real Madrid vs Galatasaray, but did not manage to totally convince in these matches. But at least this has clearly shown the very positive and promising trend the 34-year-old paramedic has been taking. In 2013/14 group stage, FC Barcelona vs Ajax Amsterdam, Chelsea FC vs Schalke 04 and Leverkusen vs Manchester Utd. were his matches. Surely not the worst ones. And his good performance at Stamford Bridge was furthermore observed by UEFA Vice Chief Officer of Refereeing Marc Batta. While Skomina's team more or less failed in Paris, Moen showed a very good performance in the intercontinental play-off between Jordan and Uruguay in front of Bertrand Layec. Appointing such a young referee for this match emphasizes the trust Busacca must have in him - even though a political background cannot be excluded, as always. And that's the interesting point: FIFA seems to rate Moen much higher than UEFA does. Moen took charge of twelve FIFA matches, among others of the U-17 World Cup final in front of almost 100.000 supporters in Estadio Azteca in 2011 (Erwin Zeinstra, Kuipers' AR2, was his assistant by the way). Additionally, he took part in the Olympic Games and in U-17 World Cup 2013, where he confirmed the positive development in matches like Brazil vs Mexico. His qualifiers were not always totally important but overall good. The observers were never members of the referee committee, which was not necessary due to his high number of FIFA tournaments. Anyway some important Scottish assessors were present in his games: Georgia vs Spain with Jan Fasung (SVK), Czech Republic vs Italy with Donald McVicar (SCO, Balotelli was correctly sent off in this match) and Romania vs Turkey with Alan Freeland (SCO) were his matches. Busacca and company seem to like Moen and UEFA has started to push him more this season. That's why I believe both federations are putting great trust into this young referee looking forward to EURO 2016, World Cup 2018 and more. That's why they could consider it as an excellent opportunity to accredit Moen with some useful experiences and insights at World Cup 2014 forming the standby team with his assistant referees Kim Haglund and Frank Andås. No doubt, actually Skomina is a level above Moen taking into account their achievements and experience, but in FIFA, different things can make the difference.After this long but hopefully not tiring speech, I predict / propose these European referees for World Cup 2014. At the bottom you can furthermore find the complete overviews on my predictions and the community vote ("the wisdom of the crowd"):
REFEREE with ASSISTANT REFEREES | MA | Date of Birth | |
UEFA REFEREES – 10 TRIOS + 1 STANDBY TRIO | |||
Referee | Felix BRYCH | GER | 03.08.1975 |
Assistant 1 | Mark BORSCH | GER | 14.05.1975 |
Assistant 2 | Stefan LUPP | GER | 16.03.1977 |
Referee | Cüneyt ÇAKIR | TUR | 23.11.1976 |
Assistant 1 | Bahattin DURAN | TUR | 01.01.1975 |
Assistant 2 | Tarik ONĞUN | TUR | 01.01.1973 |
Referee | Jonas ERIKSSON | SWE | 28.03.1974 |
Assistant 1 | Mathias KLASENIUS | SWE | 25.04.1975 |
Assistant 2 | Daniel WÄRNMARK | SWE | 30.12.1974 |
Referee | Viktor KASSAI | HUN | 10.09.1975 |
Assistant 1 | Gábor ERÖS | HUN | 05.09.1971 |
Assistant 2 | György RING | HUN | 18.03.1981 |
Referee | Björn KUIPERS | NED | 28.03.1973 |
Assistant 1 | Sander VAN ROEKEL | NED | 28.03.1974 |
Assistant 2 | Erwin ZEINSTRA | NED | 31.01.1977 |
Referee | Stéphane LANNOY | FRA | 18.09.1969 |
Assistant 1 | Frédéric CANO | FRA | 23.07.1973 |
Assistant 2 | Michaël ANNONIER | FRA | 18.06.1972 |
Referee | Pedro PROENÇA | POR | 03.11.1970 |
Assistant 1 | Bertino MIRANDA | POR | 18.05.1972 |
Assistant 2 | Tiago TRIGO | POR | 10.12.1973 |
Referee | Nicola RIZZOLI | ITA | 05.10.1971 |
Assistant 1 | Renato FAVERANI | ITA | 25.11.1969 |
Assistant 2 | Andrea STEFANI | ITA | 15.10.1969 |
Referee | Alberto UNDIANO MALLENCO | ESP | 08.10.1973 |
Assistant 1 | Raúl CABAÑERO MARTÍNEZ | ESP | 28.08.1981 |
Assistant 2 | Roberto DÍAZ PÉREZ | ESP | 29.04.1976 |
Referee | Howard WEBB | ENG | 14.07.1971 |
Assistant 1 | Michael MULLARKEY | ENG | 03.05.1970 |
Assistant 2 | Darren CANN | ENG | 22.01.1969 |
Referee | Svein Oddvar MOEN | NOR | 22.01.1979 |
Assistant 1 | Kim Thomas HAGLUND | NOR | 27.05.1977 |
Assistant 2 | Frank ANDÅS | NOR | 26.09.1975 |
Lists:
The World Cup List based on my Predictions
The World Cup List based on the Community Votes
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