Having already issued my predictions for the four major confederations environing UEFA, I would like to illuminate the situation among the pre-selected European World Cup referees and to examine their individual chances to make the dream of probably every referee become reality - being one of a bit more than 30 referees at the pending World Cup in Brazil.
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| Former colleagues, now boss and employee |
In order to design it as dramaturgically precious as possible - and as you might have already presumed reading this post's headline - this analysis is splitted into two blocks. At first, I am going to focus on the "big 4". No, we don't go on safari. But there is a wide consent that usually there are four football nations that are always represented by a referee at the World Cup. These nations are England, Germany, Italy and Spain. Each of these nations was awarded two referee trios, a privilege that clearly confirms these nations' elevated status in football refereeing. The second block to be released at the weekend will then deal with the remaining referees on the pre-list. But before starting to touch on the nations and teams mentioned, I want to give you a short update on how far the World Cup selection has come (maybe for those who did not follow this process regularly).
Back in 2010, FIFA created a very first pre-list for UEFA and the other confederations. They used this chance to test then promising referees such as Markus Strömbergsson, Stephan Studer or Tony Chapron, who like many other colleagues attended a FIFA tournament. This list was very likely planned to not be the ultimate one, since there have been obvious and sensible changes such as appointing Lannoy instead of Chapron, Eriksson instead of Strömbergsson and so on. In spring 2012, this list was, as said, updated (e.g. Mazic jumped in) and remained untouched until now. Several FIFA tournaments and in UEFA's case also World Cup qualifiers are the essentially important basis for the selection to be discussed by FIFA's referee committee next week, while Champions League and Euro 2012 performances or achievements play a role, but maybe not the leading one. There have been multiple statements and rumours in the past weeks about how exactly FIFA is going to proceed next week. The most probable prognosis is that FIFA will create a pool of referees considered to attend the World Cup but still leaving the door open for the other referees omitted in case of injuries or poor performances by some of the chosen referees. Massimo Busacca himself has recently drafted this theory in an interview given to an Italian newspaper. Another opportunity would be to reduce the list in order to short-list some officials for the very last time. Hence, some referees would be completely out while nobody would be confirmed in any way, which could give the necessary positive pressure to perform well in the K.O. stage of UEFA Champions League for example. Finally, it is important to highlight that various sources and rumours have affirmed that UEFA will very likely get 10+1 places at the World Cup. As a consequence, the following analyses target at predicting eleven referees for the final World Cup list. And now, the predictions can commence.
These officials are to be discussed today:
These officials are to be discussed today:
REFEREE with ASSISTANT REFEREES | MA | Date of Birth | FIFA 10-13 | Vote | |
ENGLAND, GERMANY, ITALY and SPAIN | |||||
Referee | Mark CLATTENBURG | ENG | 13.03.1975 | 11 | 20% |
Assistant 1 | Stephen CHILD | ENG | 21.08.1973 | ||
Assistant 2 | Simon BECK | ENG | 15.05.1972 | ||
Referee | Howard WEBB | ENG | 14.07.1971 | 10 | 93% |
Assistant 1 | Michael MULLARKEY | ENG | 03.05.1970 | ||
Assistant 2 | Darren CANN | ENG | 22.01.1969 | ||
Referee | Felix BRYCH | GER | 03.08.1975 | 7 | 91% |
Assistant 1 | Mark BORSCH | GER | 14.05.1975 | ||
Assistant 2 | Stefan LUPP | GER | 16.03.1977 | ||
Referee | Wolfgang STARK | GER | 20.11.1969 | 8 | 22% |
Assistant 1 | Jan-Hendrik SALVER | GER | 01.03.1969 | ||
Assistant 2 | Mike PICKEL | GER | 08.04.1975 | ||
Referee | Nicola RIZZOLI | ITA | 05.10.1971 | 8 | 91% |
Assistant 1 | Renato FAVERANI | ITA | 25.11.1969 | ||
Assistant 2 | Andrea STEFANI | ITA | 15.10.1969 | ||
Referee | Gianluca ROCCHI | ITA | 25.08.1973 | 7 | 9% |
Assistant 1 | Elenito DI LIBERATORE | ITA | 17.01.1973 | ||
Assistant 2 | Gianluca CARIOLATO | ITA | 24.04.1972 | ||
Referee | Alberto UNDIANO MALLENCO | ESP | 08.10.1973 | 10 | 56% |
Assistant 1 | Raúl CABAÑERO MARTÍNEZ | ESP | 28.08.1981 | ||
Assistant 2 | Roberto DÍAZ PÉREZ | ESP | 29.04.1976 | ||
Referee | Carlos VELASCO CARBALLO | ESP | 16.03.1971 | 4 | 36% |
Assistant 1 | Roberto ALONSO FERNÁNDEZ | ESP | 18.09.1976 | ||
Assistant 2 | Juan Carlos YUSTE JIMÉNEZ | ESP | 25.09.1975 | ||
ENGLAND
The recent past has shown that the English FA savours kind of exceptional status in FIFA with regards to political influence and pressure. It is an open secret that one of the pre-selected referees, Mark Clattenburg, just got the appointment for the Olympic Games final between Mexico and Brazil because of being British like the tournament's hosts. De facto, FIFA has put Clattenburg under a real magnifier during the last years proven by his many appearances in FIFA tournaments. For example, he handled many matches at U-20 World Cup 2011 in Colombia including chiefly sonorous clashes. Apart from the already mentioned Olympic Games final in 2012, he was also present at U-17 World Cup 2013 where he however oversaw only two group stage games. At the same time, he did not really receive much in the World Cup qualifiers. Even though his observer in Netherlands - Romania was top-class in his relevance (nobody less than committee member Peter Mikkelsen of Denmark), Clattenburg only got two matches of not that high importance (the other match was Israel - Russia with German Wilfried Heitmann observing him).
By contrast, Howard Webb has experienced his probably best two years as an international referee in 2012 and 2013 emphasized by a very good European Championship in 2012 and the insight that he has stayed England's best international official. The Confederations Cup 2013 does not allow many doubts about that from my point of view. His World Cup qualifiers have not been the most sonorous clashes, but were surely important: Turkey vs Romania (Slawomir Stempniewski, POL), Norway vs Switzerland (Patritiu Abrudan, ROU), Croatia vs Belgium (Nikolay Levnikov, RUS) and Sweden vs Portugal (Vlado Sajn, SVN). Except the last two observers, FIFA did not send high-profile observers to assess Webb, which indicates that he was never really in question for FIFA (maybe in late 2010 and early 2011, but this time is over). He is surely one of the most successful and charismatic referees the world of football has seen in its whole history and will clearly be appointed to attend his second World Cup. Clattenburg's progress and way FIFA deals with him shows that he is a promising referee for World Cup 2018 - or even for EURO 2016: There are broadly spread rumours that Webb is about to finish his career after World Cup 2014 - but this stays speculation for now.
So, from my point of view the English World Cup trio will be clearly headed by Howard Webb being assisted by his steady companions Michael Mullarkey and Darren Cann.
Another close duel between two referees from the same nation has already been existing for some seasons in Germany. Two Bavarians are fighting for the place in the World Cup list. While Wolfgang Stark, being international since the old millennium and having received UEFA's Elite status in 2002, is certainly a known face for FIFA, Felix Brych is the more inexperienced official in the run.
Stark was one of not many European referees who managed to show good performances in all their matches at World Cup 2010 - along with Viktor Kassai and Olegário Benquerenca, he was practically the only one. That's why his credit in FIFA circles is surely not that small. Without recognizing it, he is probably one of the best referees Europe has to offer at the moment. The problem having cropped up in the past two or three years is that Stark's performances are often between worldclass and the opposite. He has not managed to get a real consistency into his performance record recently. Moreover, he faced several controversies not only within German football leading to some kind of loss of confidence in his abilities - among others, his technical mistake in Paris SG vs FC Barcelona and his poor performance in Croatia vs Spain at EURO 2012 must be mentioned at this point. Stark's only FIFA tournament was the latest edition of FIFA's U-17 World Cup. He refereed three matches and did not have much control in Argentina vs Côte d'Ivoire - the overall impression was therefore not totally positive. His World Cup qualifier campaign was remarkably irrelevant: Denmark vs Czech Republic (Guy Goethals, BEL) and Hungary vs Romania (Valentin Ivanov, RUS) were his only matches.
For a couple of years, UEFA is strongly pushing Felix Brych. Even in his early years as Elite referee, he handled matches like AC Milan vs Real Madrid. In 2012, he had his so far biggest test of his career when excellently overseeing the semifinal in UEFA Champions League between Chelsea FC and FC Barcelona. He then attended his first FIFA tournament of his career, the Olympic Games 2012 in Great Britain, taking charge of two matches (Uruguay vs Senegal in the group stage and Brazil vs Honduras in the knockout stage). According to FIFA's referee assistance program and video footage, he made three important mistakes in these matches including a wrong sending-off for a careless tackle on Neymar. However, he was appointed for important World Cup qualifiers, was assessed by important observers and showed excellent or very good performances: Spain vs France (Vítor Melo Pereira, POR), the Balcan derby between Serbia and Croatia (Jaap Uilenberg, NED), Armenia vs Bulgaria (Zoran Petrović, SRB) and finally the intercontinental play-off between New Zealand and Mexico (Nikolay Levnikov, RUS). These qualifiers should be, from my point of view, much more decisive for the selection than two matches at Olympic Games. Additionally, he was present at Confed Cup 2013 along with the European competitives Webb, Kuipers and Proença - surely a top-class referee panel. Brych only got one match on the last matchday of the group stage, between two teams (Japan and Mexico) who were already out and without any chance to qualify for the k.o. stage. A soft but correct penalty kick was awarded in this match. As a compensation, he accompanied Björn Kuipers into the final between Brazil and Spain as the fourth official. This underlines that FIFA and Busacca in particular seem to be careful with this referee. Probably, the phantom goal due to a hole in the goalnet allowed by Brych raised some doubts about the medial echo when choosing him for the World Cup. This goal went across the whole world and was visible for everyone. Personally, I am determined that this incident may not play any role with regard to the matter we are discussing. Busacca must select the better referee, the better referee team and the referee team with more prospect for the future. And this is clearly Brych's team. I hope and believe that FIFA will recognize this and include Felix Brych, Mark Borsch and Stefan Lupp in the World Cup roster. World Cup 2010 is the only hope on the horizon for Stark.
Here, we can make it very short. Despite some inconsistencies in the past months, Nicola Rizzoli is the absolutely clear no.1 in Italy. He refereed last season's Champions League final which once again underlined his political support and estimation in UEFA. FIFA mostly did not appoint remarkably meaningful referee observers for his World Cup qualifiers, which bolsters the thesis that his appearance at the World Cup is pretty safe: Ireland vs Germany (Carlos Ferreira Matos, POR), Bosnia vs Slovakia (Erol Ersoy, TUR), Estonia vs Turkey (Jørn-West Larsen, DEN) and Portugal vs Sweden, where he performed very well, with Jozef Marko from Slovakia. His only FIFA tournaments, the Club World Cup 2011 and the U-20 World Cup in 2013, did not offer any arguments against Rizzoli's nomination. Gianluca Rocchi, the second Italian referee on the pre-list and, as we have learnt from IFFHS, the world's tenth best referee, will have it difficult to find much support in the committee next week. His FIFA performances have been good (Olympic Games 2012 and U-17 World Cup 2013), but it's surely not enough to endanger Rizzoli's position. His World Cup qualifiers were Poland vs England (Valentin Ivanov, RUS) and Austria vs Sweden (Jean Lemmer, LUX), where he had some problems.
A possible matter of discussion might be Rizzoli's assistant referee Andrea Stefani, who had a poor group stage in UEFA Champions League and is definitely not in his best shape. I don't expect a change in the trio, but it would not totally come by surprise. Anyway, Rizzoli has definitely bought his World Cup ticket.
So we have got to the tightest and most difficult duel between two officials from the same nation. The decision to make concerning Spain's referees Alberto Undiano Mallenco and Carlos Velasco Carballo can be maybe described as a true 50-50 decision.
We all remember Undiano's World Cup 2010. Despite choosing a completely unclever approach in Germany vs Serbia and not savouring any respect by the players, he got kind of build up match between North Korea and Côte d'Ivoire which qualified him for overseeing the round of 16 match between the Netherlands and Slovakia. It is an open secret that the former chairman of FIFA's referee committee, Ángel Villar Llona, is a great fan of Undiano and his refereeing style. In addition, José García-Aranda was the head of the refereeing department in 2010, which was surely no disadvantage for the Spanish trio. It's however completely different in UEFA. In late 2010, UEFA and specially Collina started to strongly push Velasco into the role as the new Spanish no.1. In his first season as Elite referee, he was immediately assigned for a semifinal in Champions League and handled it brilliantly. For this reason, he completed the all-Iberian Europa League final a few weeks later where he was however unable to show the same quality again. Collina himself was the referee observer then. Maybe in order to guarantee that Velasco's progress would definitely succeed. And de facto, Velasco outstripped Undiano, who never took charge of a more important match than a Champions League quarterfinal. It was Velasco, who attended EURO 2012 and was nominated for the opener match. Well, we know the result and the last Champions League performances have not been that consistent either. Velasco's biggest problem becoming visible in some of these matches including EL final, EURO 2012 and e.g. Dortmund vs Napoli are his poor player management and low approval for his decisions and approach among the players. Sometimes, the matches got out of control for this reason. In the meantime, Undiano has become a quite solid referee with, in my opinion, not the most sophisticated soft skills, but with overall much self-confidence, match control and a solid decision-taking. He put this onto the pitch at his FIFA appearances, e.g. in Turkey at the U-20 World Cup. At the same time, Velasco only handled one single match at a FIFA organized tournament - at last December's Club World Cup in Morocco, where he fell for a dive and gave a wrong penalty kick as a consequence.
The referee observers appointed for both referees' World Cup qualifiers again emphasize how close the duel is and how unsure FIFA's committee and Busacca seem to be:
Alberto Undiano:
- Belgium vs Croatia, Vítor Melo Pereira (Portugal)
- Sweden vs Ireland, Gudmunder Ingi Jónsson (Iceland)
- Romania vs Hungary, Alfredo Trentalange (Italy, FIFA Committee)
- England vs Montenegro, Vaclav Krondl (Czech Rep.)
- Play-Off: Iceland vs Croatia, Peter Mikkelsen (Denmark, FIFA Committee)
Carlos Velasco:
- Netherlands vs Turkey, Iouri Baskakov (Russia, former UEFA Committee member)
- Italy vs Bulgaria, Francesco Bianchi (Switzerland)
- Slovenia vs Norway, Alfredo Trentalange (Italy, FIFA Committee)
Alfredo Trentalange, who is powerful in the referee committee, assessed both referees. Surely, the committee wanted to have reliable judgments on the potential of both referees. Undiano's performances have been good, his appointments have been more numerous. It was him who got a play-off match, not Velasco. All these signs indicate a certain tendency. I don't want to call Velasco chanceless, but I am actually sure that it won't be enough. Undiano savours enough trust and support by FIFA, keeping in mind that Villar Llona still has something to say within FIFA, inspite of having retired from his position in the referee management. One interesting question would be whether, given the case that Undiano will be selected, what is to happen with the assistant referees. Actually, Roberto Alonso Fernández and Juan Carlos Yuste Jiménez are the more experienced and better assistant referees. Undiano's assistants are good, but inexperienced and, in my opinion, not at Alonso's and Yuste's level. Since Yuste already worked with Undiano at World Cup 2010, there could be a change, as the trios remain open and subject to possible alterations until the end. In the end, I nonetheless have to highlight that both referees are mainly drawing their World Cup chances from their nationality and not necessarily because they are on the same level like their colleagues from the rest of Europe, which is well displayed in the community vote.
My predictions therefore are:
GERMANY
Stark was one of not many European referees who managed to show good performances in all their matches at World Cup 2010 - along with Viktor Kassai and Olegário Benquerenca, he was practically the only one. That's why his credit in FIFA circles is surely not that small. Without recognizing it, he is probably one of the best referees Europe has to offer at the moment. The problem having cropped up in the past two or three years is that Stark's performances are often between worldclass and the opposite. He has not managed to get a real consistency into his performance record recently. Moreover, he faced several controversies not only within German football leading to some kind of loss of confidence in his abilities - among others, his technical mistake in Paris SG vs FC Barcelona and his poor performance in Croatia vs Spain at EURO 2012 must be mentioned at this point. Stark's only FIFA tournament was the latest edition of FIFA's U-17 World Cup. He refereed three matches and did not have much control in Argentina vs Côte d'Ivoire - the overall impression was therefore not totally positive. His World Cup qualifier campaign was remarkably irrelevant: Denmark vs Czech Republic (Guy Goethals, BEL) and Hungary vs Romania (Valentin Ivanov, RUS) were his only matches.
For a couple of years, UEFA is strongly pushing Felix Brych. Even in his early years as Elite referee, he handled matches like AC Milan vs Real Madrid. In 2012, he had his so far biggest test of his career when excellently overseeing the semifinal in UEFA Champions League between Chelsea FC and FC Barcelona. He then attended his first FIFA tournament of his career, the Olympic Games 2012 in Great Britain, taking charge of two matches (Uruguay vs Senegal in the group stage and Brazil vs Honduras in the knockout stage). According to FIFA's referee assistance program and video footage, he made three important mistakes in these matches including a wrong sending-off for a careless tackle on Neymar. However, he was appointed for important World Cup qualifiers, was assessed by important observers and showed excellent or very good performances: Spain vs France (Vítor Melo Pereira, POR), the Balcan derby between Serbia and Croatia (Jaap Uilenberg, NED), Armenia vs Bulgaria (Zoran Petrović, SRB) and finally the intercontinental play-off between New Zealand and Mexico (Nikolay Levnikov, RUS). These qualifiers should be, from my point of view, much more decisive for the selection than two matches at Olympic Games. Additionally, he was present at Confed Cup 2013 along with the European competitives Webb, Kuipers and Proença - surely a top-class referee panel. Brych only got one match on the last matchday of the group stage, between two teams (Japan and Mexico) who were already out and without any chance to qualify for the k.o. stage. A soft but correct penalty kick was awarded in this match. As a compensation, he accompanied Björn Kuipers into the final between Brazil and Spain as the fourth official. This underlines that FIFA and Busacca in particular seem to be careful with this referee. Probably, the phantom goal due to a hole in the goalnet allowed by Brych raised some doubts about the medial echo when choosing him for the World Cup. This goal went across the whole world and was visible for everyone. Personally, I am determined that this incident may not play any role with regard to the matter we are discussing. Busacca must select the better referee, the better referee team and the referee team with more prospect for the future. And this is clearly Brych's team. I hope and believe that FIFA will recognize this and include Felix Brych, Mark Borsch and Stefan Lupp in the World Cup roster. World Cup 2010 is the only hope on the horizon for Stark.
ITALY
A possible matter of discussion might be Rizzoli's assistant referee Andrea Stefani, who had a poor group stage in UEFA Champions League and is definitely not in his best shape. I don't expect a change in the trio, but it would not totally come by surprise. Anyway, Rizzoli has definitely bought his World Cup ticket.
SPAIN
We all remember Undiano's World Cup 2010. Despite choosing a completely unclever approach in Germany vs Serbia and not savouring any respect by the players, he got kind of build up match between North Korea and Côte d'Ivoire which qualified him for overseeing the round of 16 match between the Netherlands and Slovakia. It is an open secret that the former chairman of FIFA's referee committee, Ángel Villar Llona, is a great fan of Undiano and his refereeing style. In addition, José García-Aranda was the head of the refereeing department in 2010, which was surely no disadvantage for the Spanish trio. It's however completely different in UEFA. In late 2010, UEFA and specially Collina started to strongly push Velasco into the role as the new Spanish no.1. In his first season as Elite referee, he was immediately assigned for a semifinal in Champions League and handled it brilliantly. For this reason, he completed the all-Iberian Europa League final a few weeks later where he was however unable to show the same quality again. Collina himself was the referee observer then. Maybe in order to guarantee that Velasco's progress would definitely succeed. And de facto, Velasco outstripped Undiano, who never took charge of a more important match than a Champions League quarterfinal. It was Velasco, who attended EURO 2012 and was nominated for the opener match. Well, we know the result and the last Champions League performances have not been that consistent either. Velasco's biggest problem becoming visible in some of these matches including EL final, EURO 2012 and e.g. Dortmund vs Napoli are his poor player management and low approval for his decisions and approach among the players. Sometimes, the matches got out of control for this reason. In the meantime, Undiano has become a quite solid referee with, in my opinion, not the most sophisticated soft skills, but with overall much self-confidence, match control and a solid decision-taking. He put this onto the pitch at his FIFA appearances, e.g. in Turkey at the U-20 World Cup. At the same time, Velasco only handled one single match at a FIFA organized tournament - at last December's Club World Cup in Morocco, where he fell for a dive and gave a wrong penalty kick as a consequence.
The referee observers appointed for both referees' World Cup qualifiers again emphasize how close the duel is and how unsure FIFA's committee and Busacca seem to be:
Alberto Undiano:
- Belgium vs Croatia, Vítor Melo Pereira (Portugal)
- Sweden vs Ireland, Gudmunder Ingi Jónsson (Iceland)
- Romania vs Hungary, Alfredo Trentalange (Italy, FIFA Committee)
- England vs Montenegro, Vaclav Krondl (Czech Rep.)
- Play-Off: Iceland vs Croatia, Peter Mikkelsen (Denmark, FIFA Committee)
Carlos Velasco:
- Netherlands vs Turkey, Iouri Baskakov (Russia, former UEFA Committee member)
- Italy vs Bulgaria, Francesco Bianchi (Switzerland)
- Slovenia vs Norway, Alfredo Trentalange (Italy, FIFA Committee)
Alfredo Trentalange, who is powerful in the referee committee, assessed both referees. Surely, the committee wanted to have reliable judgments on the potential of both referees. Undiano's performances have been good, his appointments have been more numerous. It was him who got a play-off match, not Velasco. All these signs indicate a certain tendency. I don't want to call Velasco chanceless, but I am actually sure that it won't be enough. Undiano savours enough trust and support by FIFA, keeping in mind that Villar Llona still has something to say within FIFA, inspite of having retired from his position in the referee management. One interesting question would be whether, given the case that Undiano will be selected, what is to happen with the assistant referees. Actually, Roberto Alonso Fernández and Juan Carlos Yuste Jiménez are the more experienced and better assistant referees. Undiano's assistants are good, but inexperienced and, in my opinion, not at Alonso's and Yuste's level. Since Yuste already worked with Undiano at World Cup 2010, there could be a change, as the trios remain open and subject to possible alterations until the end. In the end, I nonetheless have to highlight that both referees are mainly drawing their World Cup chances from their nationality and not necessarily because they are on the same level like their colleagues from the rest of Europe, which is well displayed in the community vote.
My predictions therefore are:
REFEREE with ASSISTANT REFEREES | MA | Date of Birth | |
4 REFEREES FROM ENG, GER, ITA and ESP | |||
Referee | Howard WEBB | ENG | 14.07.1971 |
Assistant 1 | Michael MULLARKEY | ENG | 03.05.1970 |
Assistant 2 | Darren CANN | ENG | 22.01.1969 |
Referee | Felix BRYCH | GER | 03.08.1975 |
Assistant 1 | Mark BORSCH | GER | 14.05.1975 |
Assistant 2 | Stefan LUPP | GER | 16.03.1977 |
Referee | Nicola RIZZOLI | ITA | 05.10.1971 |
Assistant 1 | Renato FAVERANI | ITA | 25.11.1969 |
Assistant 2 | Andrea STEFANI | ITA | 15.10.1969 |
Referee | Alberto UNDIANO MALLENCO | ESP | 08.10.1973 |
Assistant 1 | Raúl CABAÑERO MARTÍNEZ | ESP | 28.08.1981 |
Assistant 2 | Roberto DÍAZ PÉREZ | ESP | 29.04.1976 |
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