World Cup Referees - Predictions for South America

Having already yielded predictions of probable World Cup referees from three zones (AFC, CAF and CONCACAF), I would like to closely scrutinize the hosting confederation's situation. The South American federation CONMEBOL has steadily played an essential role with regard to football refereeing, specially in the current millennium, if we remember referees and their quality like Horacio Elizondo or Jorge Larrionda. Therefore, selecting seven profiled and excellent referees must be one of Massimo Busacca's main interests when forming Team No.33, keeping in mind South American officials have always been valid candidates for the final. But, as you will see, this time's pre-list referees are completely different than in the past years caused by a radical generation change because of the retirement of many referees we were used to see in the past.

Which South American referees will enjoy their World Cup this time?

We cannot be sure about the exact number of officials coming from the three zones already analyzed. But what we know with certainty according to several reports in the media is that CONMEBOL will get a referee more than in 2010, meaning that this analysis will assume 6+1 referees from South America. Before starting the analysis, I must pay great tribute to our co-bloggers of Árbitro Internacional, who don't only provide us with the latest referee appointments at FIFA tournaments, but who also shaped my opinion on the match officials from South America. Of course, the post will however be also based on our observations gathered during the last FIFA competitions and World Cup qualifiers.

REFEREE with ASSISTANT REFEREES		MA	Date of Birth	FIFA 10-13	Vote
SOUTH AMERICA (CONMEBOL) – 10 NATIONS
Referee	Diego ABAL	ARG	28.12.1971	5	57%
Standby Ref	Néstor PITANA	ARG	17.06.1975	7	38%
Assistant 1	Hernán MAIDANA	ARG	14.02.1972	11
Assistant 2	Juan Pablo BELATTI	ARG	15.04.1979	7
Standby AR	Diego BONFÁ	ARG	04.12.1977	8
Referee	Raúl OROSCO	BOL	25.03.1979	4	29%
Assistant 1	Efraín CASTRO	BOL	26.11.1969	4
Assistant 2	Arol VALDA	BOL	10.12.1970	3
Referee	Sandro RICCI	BRA	19.11.1974	10	90%
Standby Ref	Heber LOPES	BRA	13.07.1972	8	26%
Assistant 1	Alessandro ROCHA DE MATOS	BRA	10.02.1976	18
Assistant 2	Emerson DE CARVALHO	BRA	24.06.1972	18
Standby AR	Marcelo VAN GASSE	BRA	09.03.1976	10
Referee	Enrique OSSES	CHI	26.05.1974	7	89%
Assistant 1	Carlos Alexis ASTROZA	CHI	23.11.1976	6
Assistant 2	Sergio ROMÁN	CHI	11.02.1969	3
Referee	Wilmar ROLDÁN	COL	24.01.1980	7	89%
Assistant 1	Humberto CLAVIJO	COL	18.08.1973	9
Assistant 2	Eduardo DIAZ	COL	10.07.1973	7
Referee	Carlos VERA	ECU	25.06.1976	8	72%
Assistant 1	Christian LESCANO	ECU	07.06.1983	14
Assistant 2	Byron ROMERO	ECU	12.07.1980	7
Referee	Antonio ARIAS	PAR	07.09.1972	11	71%
Assistant 1	Rodney AQUINO	PAR	16.04.1984	6
Assistant 2	Carlos CACÈRES	PAR	26.06.1983	9
Referee	Víctor CARRILLO	PER	30.10.1975	11	65%
Assistant 1	Jonny BOSSIO	PER	31.07.1975	13
Assistant 2	César ESCANO	PER	08.02.1970	10
Referee	Martin VAZQUEZ	URU	14.01.1969	1	45%
Assistant 1	Nicolas TARÁN	URU	27.08.1980	1
Assistant 2	Miguel NIEVAS	URU	16.12.1974	2
Referee	Juan SOTO	VEN	14.10.1977	4	29%
Assistant 1	Jorge URREGO	VEN	09.10.1981	5
Assistant 2	Carlos LÓPEZ	VEN	22.06.1982	5

Let us start leisurely. Brazil will host the World Cup so that they definitely need a high-quality referee trio. The past has shown that this football nation has produced many top referees such as Arnaldo Coelho, José Wright or Carlos Simon. However, this time, it was not that easy at all to find a reliable and above all fit referee who can fulfill this venerable task in his home nation. At first, Wilson Seneme was planned to represent Brazilian refereeing at the World Cup. He showed to be a very self-confident and good referee at U-20 World Cup 2011. Unfortunately, he was persecuted by bad luck and failed some fitness tests due to injuries. After some incertainty, Sandro Ricci has turned out to be the one on whom all trust is put. FIFA also focused on Heber Lopes for a while and even invited him to plenty of seminars and U-17 World Cup 2013, but in the end the recent Club World Cup final has shown who is the clear no.1. He has shown an impressive development this year, without any doubt. But it must be emphasized that Ricci's first international match was in 2011. So he is only in his fourth really international year and is already pushed to a World Cup. That's not only impressive, but also risky. Although I am sure that Ricci will do well at his home World Cup, I cannot fully understand how a referee department that knows that their nation will host the World Cup since 2007, does not manage to establish a fit, experienced and good referee in these almost seven years. It was surely bad luck that Seneme was not an option anymore after his injuries, but if plan B is a referee who is internationally active since 2011, something went wrong.

Ricci's assistant referees should not remain unmentioned either. Alessandro Rocha De Matos and Emerson De Carvalho have proven their skills in plenty of FIFA organized tournaments and are a real advantage of this trio. At U-17 World Cup 2013 and Club World Cup 2013, Marcelo van Gasse assisted Ricci as AR2 though. I don't really understand why FIFA has done this move, but maybe the jury is still out to decide about these three assistant referees.

Like in Europe, there are some nations in South America that are always represented by one of their referees at the World Cup. This counts for Brazil and it does so for Argentina as well. Similar to Brazil, there are two match officials who attended FIFA tournaments in recent months because of being short-listed for the World Cup: Diego Abal and Néstor Pitana.

Abal first appeared at U-17 World Cup 2011 and only refereed two matches there, as his assistant referees had failed the fitness tests prior to the competition. The overall impression was quite promising. The 1971 born referee however faced some hard months in 2012. In a crucial and highly combatted match in the Argentine league, he overruled or at least ignored an offside flag of his AR. All the defenders relied on this flag, while the attacking team were clever enough to score a goal allowed by Abal (compliant with the old offside rule, the AR correctly raised the flag). For this reason, Abal and his family received multiple death threats by furious fans of San Lorenzo. They were under police protection as a consequence. Things like that don't leave anybody cold, of course. He only handled six Copa Libertadores matches in the past three seasons (as a comparison, most of the other pre-list officials refereed between 5 and 9 matches per season at the same time). Nonetheless, he seems to be protected by some people inside FIFA so that he was appointed to attend Confederations Cup 2013. In his only match, Italy vs Japan, he performed quite poorly to be honest. In the months after that, he was among others unable to handle a World Cup qualifier he was appointed for because of a failed fitness test in Argentina. In my opinion, this is way too much trouble around a possible World Cup referee. 

FIFA additionally increased the pressure on Abal by including a second referee from Argentina on the current pre-list. Néstor Pitana showed clearly better performances in the World Cup qualifiers and at U-17 World Cup 2013. His fitness is not a problem contrary to Abal. Arguing with common sense, Busacca should actually select him. But who knows. It is difficult to say but I predict that Busacca and the committee collect their wits just for once. A smooth solution would be to classify the Argentine representative as standby official at any rate, regardless whether it will be Abal or Pitana. However, this is contradictory in itself - Argentina will have a main referee, I am quite sure.

Colombian Wilmar Roldán is next whom I personally consider as the currently best South American referee, despite the fact that he is the youngest of all pre-selected referees. His style is quite exceptional from my point of view, as he combines the necessary determination with a lenient approach, at least considering his international FIFA performances. 

The Olympic Games 2012 have shown the great potential of this match official. In 2012 and 2013, he moreover took charge of the Copa Libertadores finals in a good manner. There is no doubt that this referee does not have to fear anything; he is surely at the World Cup. The circumstance that he only handled two minor group stage matches at U-20 World Cup 2013 might contradict this thesis. But actually this competition was only a small casting show where every referee got a fixed amount of matches (at least 2) regardless how they performed in their first match. Consequently, not appearing in the k.o. stage could be also a positive sign indicating that Busacca is absolutely convinced of him and did not see the need to test him once again (keeping in mind that every match can potentially create mistakes that might spoil the World Cup...). Along with Humberto Clavijo, who was already present at World Cup 2010, and Eduardo Díaz, Roldán will form one of the strongest referee trios outside UEFA in my opinion.

Besides Roldán, Chile's Enrique Osses has been the South American referee over the last years. He refereed multiple Libertadores matches including the first leg of 2012 final (Roldán handled the second leg). But this was not his only final. In 2012 and 2013, he handled both finals of Copa Sudamericana which one can easily compare to UEFA Europa League. Osses only attended two FIFA tournaments - first the Club World Cup 2011, where he took control over a quarterfinal, and second last year's Confederations Cup where he conveyed an ambivalent impression about his referee abilities. His first performance in the group stage encounter of Mexico and Italy was below expected level, as he showed remarkable shortcomings in his match control. In the semifinal between Brazil and Uruguay though, he performed very well and removed several doubts that arised from his first performance. Along with Ricci and Roldán, Osses will very likely be the South American referee who gets some really tough and important matches at the World Cup - of course, all depends on the first performance, but this is what I would predict just now.

The only question concerning him is who will accompany him. At the Confed Cup, Francisco Mondria was absent due to injury. Sergio Román replaced him. Very likely, Francisco Mondria and Carlos Astroza will be Osses' assistant referees at the World Cup as long as both are fit and health.

In the previous texts, I have often touched on the aspect of political interference in the selection done by the referee committee and the Suisse chief officer. CONMEBOL's head of refereeing Carlos Alarcón of Paraguay is in FIFA's Referee Committee as well. I would be surprised if his influence is not strong enough to make a Paraguayan referee team join the World Cup. In 2010, Carlos Amarilla was planned to attend the World Cup inspite of poor shape and performances. He only missed the tournament as his assistant referees failed the fitness tests. This time, Paraguay has a good and reliable referee called Antonio Arias. Within CONMEBOL, Arias did not get the biggest matches during the last seasons but at least refereed Copa Sudamericana's final in 2012. He is therefore not belonging to the absolute peak of South American refereeing, but one step below it. His World Cup qualifiers were however quite important. The 41-year-old was invited to the last two editions of FIFA U-20 World Cup. In 2011, he took charge of five matches including a round of 16 match and the 3rd place match between Mexico and France. In 2013, he only got two matches in the group stage which is normal due to the high amount of officials appointed to handle matches in Turkey. Both performances were good. So I guess Arias is another sure name to appear on the final list. Maybe he is not the strongest South American referee, but he has the abilities and political background needed to qualify for the World Cup.

After mentioning five referees whom I consider as sure names for the World Cup, it is time to highlight three officials without a chance to be nominated for the final tournament.

Equivalent to the problems in Brazil, the situation in Uruguay was and still is quite complicated. At first, Dario Ubriaco and Roberto Silvera were pre-selected. Ubriaco indeed showed a good U-20 tournament in 2011. But like some of their colleagues in other nations, both officials had fitness problems arousing from injuries. For example, Silvera failed a fitness test in Zurich in 2012 and rejected to try it again some weeks later in South America. After Larrionda, both referees were probably the best Uruguayan officials and both had a large international experience. In 2013, Silvera even handled a Copa Libertadores semifinal and one leg of the Copa Sudamericana final. But he won't be at the World Cup, which is a pity.

Instead, the only remaining Uruguayan on the pre-list is Martin Vazquez, who filled Amarilla's place at World Cup 2010 and accompanied many officials as fourth official (for example Larrionda in Germany vs England). Since Larrionda is also in the referee committee today, there maybe was a chance for Vazquez to get his ticket to Brazil. But, as you can guess, Vazquez had bad luck as well and suffered from an injury prior to U-17 World Cup 2013 for which he was selected. He only refereed one FIFA match in the whole pre-list period. As a result, the likelihood that Uruguay will stay without a World Cup referee is very high.

Venezuela's Juan Soto has only very small outsider chances, too. He showed a couple of poor performances during the last years, such as in his only (!) qualifier between Ecuador and Bolivia, where he awarded a phantom penalty kick. Back in 2012, he was pretty much under fire in the Olympic Games match between Spain and Honduras. He broke Olympic records by issuing 13 yellow cards, had no control at all and was attacked and dissented by various players without reacting to it as it should be. Even though it might be hard, but this evening in Newcastle could have disqualified him. Some matches at U-17 World Cup 2013 won't change that.

The South American pre-list pays much attention to have one referee from each of the confederation's ten member states. For this reason, there is also a Bolivian trio headed by Raúl Orosco. In a nutshell: apart from a surprising semifinal appointment at the last Copa America, this referee does not have many arguments. He only got one match at the Olympic Games and showed no good performance. Orosco only got one World Cup qualifier in 2011 and nothing else since then. Within CONMEBOL, he is not frequently appointed either. Without any doubt, the young and maybe talented referee from Bolivia has no chance.

By this method of elimination, there are only two remaining places and two referees left. Ecuadorian Carlos Vera and Peruvian Víctor Carrillo will very likely "fight" for the last place as a main referee. Vera performed very well at Club World Cup 2012 and took charge of Chelsea FC's semifinal against Monterrey there. At U-20 World Cup 2013, he only took charge of two group stage matches and showed one very good and one satisfying performance respectively. His assistant referees Christian Lescano and Byron Romero (not to be confused with Byron Moreno..) both are very young but very good and have often proven their eagle eyes. 

Carrillo was invited to three FIFA tournaments since 2010 including a U-17 World Cup and a U-20 World Cup. Even though the performances were at least acceptable and solid, this referee's style caught my attention. I rarely saw a referee who looks grimly for the entire 90 minutes, but Carrillo did so in many matches. He appears quite unfriendly and definitely more pedantic than Vera - at least based on the FIFA matches. But, as mentioned, he is a solid referee. By the way, he was the only referee who took charge of five World Cup qualifiers - the highest number of all pre-list referees.

Summarizing these words, I predict Carlos Vera as the sixth South American who will act on the field of play, while I expect Víctor Carrillo as the standby official from the hosting confederation CONMEBOL.

All in all, I predict these South American World Cup referees:

REFEREE with ASSISTANT REFEREES		MA	Date of Birth
CONMEBOL – 6 REFEREE TEAMS + 1 STANDBY TEAM
Referee	Néstor PITANA	ARG	17.06.1975
Assistant 1	Hernán MAIDANA	ARG	14.02.1972
Assistant 2	Juan Pablo BELATTI	ARG	15.04.1979
Referee	Sandro RICCI	BRA	28.09.1970
Assistant 1	Alessandro ROCHA DE MATOS	BRA	10.02.1976
Assistant 2	Emerson DE CARVALHO	BRA	24.06.1972
Referee	Enrique OSSES	CHI	26.05.1974
Assistant 1	Carlos Alexis ASTROZA	CHI	23.11.1976
Assistant 2	Sergio ROMÁN	CHI	11.02.1969
Referee	Wilmar ROLDÁN	COL	24.01.1980
Assistant 1	Humberto CLAVIJO	COL	18.08.1973
Assistant 2	Eduardo DIAZ	COL	10.07.1973
Referee	Carlos VERA	ECU	25.06.1976
Assistant 1	Christian LESCANO	ECU	07.06.1983
Assistant 2	Byron ROMERO	ECU	12.07.1980
Referee	Antonio ARIAS	PAR	07.09.1972
Assistant 1	Rodney AQUINO	PAR	16.04.1984
Assistant 2	Carlos CACÈRES	PAR	26.06.1983
Referee	Víctor CARRILLO	PER	30.10.1975
Assistant 1	Jonny BOSSIO	PER	31.07.1975
Assistant 2	César ESCANO	PER	08.02.1970